I was advising a sport on their debrief process recently when a leader commented that the sport needed more certainty.
Unfortunately, full certainty is the day that will never arrive. That is for certainty.
A recent study in 2020 published in the Journal of Decision Systems (keep one of these by your bed if you can't sleep :)) found the response to uncertainty creates greater complexity, information overload and time-pressure. Not helpful to good decision making.
The focus becomes fixing uncertainty rather than making good decisions. Many sports get stuck, particularly in reviews, in chasing the uncertainty paradox. Some are asking endless 'why did this happen' rather than 'what do we do next'. One is a rabbit hole in and the other is a doorway out!
Sustained performers have freed up the need to create certainty. They have built a system that gets stronger with uncertainty. In my experience the effort to 'fix' uncertainty leads to many low performing behaviours...
- information overload (dealing with what can't be controlled)
-running out of time (ruminating about all possible scenerios)
-relying on out-dated assumptions to make fast decisions
-simplifying by quick deletion (as opposed to strategic reduction)
Are you chasing the uncertainty fix or have you found the way out?